Ok so it's the first week of May and we are past 3 races so far.

But i dont see nothing much new.

Let's consider Qatar. Now stoner's a Qatar specialist. It's not really
surprising that Stoner won. But what's a bit surprising is that - ok that's
for later.

So onto Motegi. That was more or of a lottery, a gamble. It boiled down
to who gambled better for the race settings. So there's really no point
trying to derive conclusions out of Lorenzo's win (except that he can keep
it on two wheels under pressure) .

Finally Jerez. Rossi finished second last year - on relatively new tyres, and
hence new bike setup, and faced with super stiff home opposition like the
sorts of Pedrosa and Lorenzo. So it should be a given that this year he will
win. He did, too.

So then, what's new?

Well, look at the sunday warmup at Qatar. Rossi was right there, right
behind Stoner.

So i can't help thinking that if the Qatar race had not got postponed it
might have been a different result, or maybe, more probably, Stoner
might have found it more difficult.

This seems to suggest that Yamaha and Rossi have got the bike/tyre/setup
combination far more dialled in compared to last year.

This makes me ponder over how Ducati and Stoner might find it at their
stronger tracks like say Donington, or Sachsenring (?), or maybe Philip
island, etc.

I won't list Assen here cos i strongly believe that Rossi is really clued
onto the secrets of Assen. Last year, yes, he got boxed in, and made a
rookie-yish mistake while trying to force his way to the front.

So then, here are my conclusions as of now:

1. I don't see Stoner, or Ducati, having gained enough over the last
one year to make a big enough difference (Yes, i'm taking the Carbon
Fiber chassis into account)

2. I do see Rossi and Yamaha gaining enough to make more of a
difference this year.

3. I do not see either Pedrosa or Honda having acquired enough boost
to catch up with Rossi/Yamaha or Stoner/Ducati.

4. Lorenzo just do not have it yet to take the fight to Rossi.

5. No surprises from the rest of the field.

---

So the 2009 motogp season has started. There are hardly any surprises so far:

1. Rossi topped the first Jerez test.

Point to note is that Stoner was absent. Yamaha seems to have
done an excellent job with their 2009 machine.

2. Edwards is on the pace and has started praising the
Yamaha M1 no end.

Dejavu, anyone? Think back to the beginning of the 2007 season.
Let's see a win, Colin. But you are a great guy.

3. Stoner topped the second test at Sepang, albeit by a
narrow margin

Stoner did not fare well at Sepang in 2008, too. Not quite
surprisingly he refused to accept his lack of speed and
blamed his wrist injury.

I've been following Stoner's interviews since the beginning
of his career, and he is very strangely incapable of admitting
that he was slow on a particular day, and prefers to seek out
an altogether different reason.

4. Stoner has started strongly at the third test at Qatar
and is leading the test times by 0.6 seconds with one
more day to go.

Again, not surprising. Rossi had a torrid time at Qatar in 2008,
thanks to a total lack of setup information. Having the first day
rain-swept did not help either.

Watch out for Rossi to halve the gap by the third day.

5. Stoner's laptime is way ahead of anything that anybody
else has been able to wring out that Ducati.

Love him or hate him, you got to admit that the guy's the fastest
out there.

To be honest i'm (becoming) a big fan of his speed, but certainly
not of his attitude or character.